Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

DC 0xdceb…47d9 sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$216 (-11%) realized −$209 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%5W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day9.2pace

Fees−$25est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)-29.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	-22.2%	-29.6%	25%	25%	-22.3%
≤30d	20	-22.2%	-29.6%	25%	25%	-22.3%
≤90d	20	-22.2%	-29.6%	25%	25%	-22.3%
all	20	-22.2%	-29.6%	25%	25%	-22.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-29.6%	25%	-22.3%
10%	-36.4%	25%	-29.7%
15%	-42.5%	25%	-36.5%
20%	-48.2%	20%	-42.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -86% → late +42% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$184 vs −$78 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$270

Realized−$209

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses5 / 15

Est. fees paid−$25

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage3d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day9.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Saudi Arabia	73¢	72¢	$94	$92	−$2 (-2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	Under	76¢	74¢	$92	$89	−$3 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Saudi Arabia	87¢	86¢	$90	$89	−$2 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	Jun 21	$158	−$57	-36%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	Jun 21	$158	+$243	+154%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$81	+$113	+140%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$81	+$152	+188%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$80	+$378	+474%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$86	−$86	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$86	−$86	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	Jun 20	$83	−$83	-100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$84	−$84	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$85	−$85	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$88	−$88	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$90	−$90	-100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$90	+$32	+36%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	Jun 19	$50	−$50	-100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	Jun 19	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$100	−$100	-100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$102	−$102	-100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 18	$102	−$102	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	87¢	$91	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	76¢	$93	1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Saudi Arabia	73¢	$95	1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	19¢	$78	8h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	17¢	$80	8h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	41¢	$81	8h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	BUY Curaçao	77¢	$78	11h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Curaçao	34¢	$81	11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$86	21h
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5)	BUY Ecuador	25¢	$80	25h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	84¢	$80	25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	20¢	$83	25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	43¢	$84	25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	42¢	$86	25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	45¢	$85	2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$88	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	26¢	$90	2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	73¢	$90	2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	25¢	$102	2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	24¢	$100	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	21¢	$102	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	44¢	$51	2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	67¢	$50	2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5)	BUY Qatar	71¢	$50	2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5)	BUY Qatar	48¢	$51	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.96 · official $269.96 (match) · 47 history records