Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:03:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf0…93f8 crypto 185 markets active 17h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-1%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%114W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day67.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$71
other 4% −$250
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 185 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -14.1%
≤30d 185 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -14.1%
≤90d 185 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -14.1%
all 185 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 40% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 40% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 29% -22.3%
15% -23.1% 22% -29.8%
20% -30.6% 16% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses114 / 71
Open positions0
Markets (closed)185 / 185
History coverage5d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day67.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 185 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $161 −$25 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$17 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$26 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $242 −$14 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $162 +$30 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $81 −$14 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $190 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $82 −$17 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $200 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $309 +$87 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$56 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $62 −$52 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$13 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $118 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$5 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $137 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $55 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $123 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $80 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $39 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $67 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $80 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $81 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $65 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $82 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $141 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 474 history records