Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:33:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf3…5c30 crypto 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$694 (-4%) realized −$691 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%103W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$514now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$122
14 days−$81
30 days+$343
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$169
other 23% −$979
politics 8% −$41
sports 7% −$129
crypto 6% +$46
tech 3% +$185
finance 1% +$74
economics 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -32.0% -38.5% 35% 30% -5.1%
≤30d 49 -18.4% -26.1% 51% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 86 -18.1% -25.9% 51% 43% -12.1%
all 249 -10.8% -19.3% 41% 35% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 35% -13.6%
10% -27.0% 28% -21.8%
15% -34.0% 19% -29.4%
20% -40.5% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$30 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$514
Realized−$691
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses103 / 146
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions7
Markets (closed)249 / 256
History coverage183d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 81¢ 98¢ $101 $122 +$21 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $101 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 31¢ 28¢ $99 $88 −$11 (-11%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? No 56¢ 90¢ $51 $81 +$30 (+60%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? No 27¢ 36¢ $24 $32 +$8 (+31%)
Will Waymo operate in 12 or more cities on June 30 2026? Yes 27¢ 3¢ $40 $4 −$36 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$41 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$152 +38%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $254 +$256 +101%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $81 +$67 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 15 $208 +$6 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 −$48 -93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $401 +$275 +69%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$212 +414%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $100 +$79 +79%
Google x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by June 30? Jun 09 $75 +$18 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 06 $100 +$40 +40%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 05 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 05 $308 +$17 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $600 +$139 +23%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$58 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $301 +$69 +23%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $101 +$84 +83%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? May 30 $100 +$41 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1,600 −$350 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 28 $100 +$54 +54%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 28 $56 −$56 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $450 +$141 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $100 +$50 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 26 $150 +$74 +49%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $100 +$26 +26%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $100 +$8 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $297 +$38 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 23 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $299 +$108 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 70¢ $93 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 42¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 32¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $51 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 98¢ $157 23h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $33 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 83¢ $400 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 25h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 47h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $16 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $8 2d
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY No 27¢ $0 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $63 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $9 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $0 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 31¢ $27 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $254 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $513.59 · official $513.59 (match) · 832 history records