trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $345 | $345 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? | May 28 | $345 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 18 | $347 | +$2 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 03 | $345 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? | Mar 02 | $652 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 27? | Feb 27 | $345 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on February 26? | Feb 26 | $344 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? | Feb 04 | $340 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? | Jan 30 | $339 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 12-18? | Jan 14 | $318 | +$21 | +6% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 January 5-11? | Jan 11 | $303 | +$15 | +5% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 26? | Dec 29 | $302 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 12? | Dec 12 | $301 | +$1 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 10 | $300 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 4? | Dec 05 | $300 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? | Nov 27 | $299 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? | Nov 09 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 7? | Nov 09 | $309 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? | Nov 05 | $291 | +$4 | +1% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Nov 04 | $10 | +$4 | +39% |
| Ethereum all time high by October 31? | Nov 02 | $290 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 29? | Oct 29 | $290 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on October 28? | Oct 29 | $290 | $0 | +0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.3% | -9.2% | 100% | 0% | -9.2% |
| all | 22 | -1.9% | -11.3% | 86% | 5% | -8.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.3% | 5% | -8.8% |
| 10% | -19.8% | 5% | -17.6% |
| 15% | -27.5% | 5% | -25.5% |
| 20% | -34.6% | 0% | -32.8% |