Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcf8…6d0e sports 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$180 (-19%) realized −$136 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%8W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$150
14 days−$47
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$119
sports 44% −$58
world 6% −$31
crypto 5% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +21.0% +9.5% 33% 33% -39.6%
≤30d 16 +65.5% +49.8% 38% 38% -18.7%
≤90d 27 +14.4% +3.5% 30% 30% -33.4%
all 28 +13.9% +3.1% 29% 29% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 29% -31.0%
10% -6.8% 25% -37.6%
15% -15.8% 25% -43.6%
20% -24.1% 25% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$24 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$136
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses8 / 20
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)28 / 34
History coverage95d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Yes 27¢ 58¢ $15 $32 +$17 (+115%)
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Yes 61¢ 44¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 42¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-23%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 20¢ $50 $19 −$31 (-62%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 34¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 33¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $47 +$72 +154%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$44 +864%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$18 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $29 +$32 +109%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $14 +$103 +733%
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? Apr 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 18 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Girona FC vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations by March 31? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Mar 22 $22 +$13 +59%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 19 $29 −$7 -23%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Mar 15 $79 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $25 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 1h
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $15 1h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $51 14h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? SELL No 99¢ $119 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 15h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 15h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY No 29¢ $36 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $3 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 18h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $31 38h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $13 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $29 7d
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-04? BUY No 44¢ $128 10d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 11¢ $26 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Jannik Sinner 26¢ $26 18d
Will Atlético Madrid win Copa Del Rey? BUY Yes 40¢ $46 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.57 · official $115.57 (match) · 102 history records