Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:05:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DC 0xdcf8…44e5 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$15
crypto 5% −$3
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 16 +3.8% -6.1% 69% 12% -8.8%
≤90d 67 -14.2% -22.4% 48% 30% -10.5%
all 67 -14.2% -22.4% 48% 30% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 30% -10.5%
10% -29.8% 24% -19.1%
15% -36.6% 24% -26.9%
20% -42.8% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage47d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 $0 +2%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $868 +$5 +1%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $50 +$1 +2%
Germany vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $40 $0 +0%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $231 +$2 +1%
Wimbledon ATP: Michael Zheng vs Cameron Norrie Jun 29 $30 −$1 -3%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $20 −$1 -7%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Chicago Sky Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $50 +$1 +2%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $50 +$1 +1%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $46 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $18 $0 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Dallas Wings Jun 28 $41 $0 -0%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $5 $0 -3%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $3 +$3 +83%
Nashville SC vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $3 +$2 +79%
Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution: O/U 2.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution: Both Teams to Score May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 2.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Sparta Rotterdam vs. SBV Excelsior: O/U 2.5 May 18 $3 +$2 +52%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Brentford FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Sparta Rotterdam vs. SBV Excelsior: Both Teams to Score May 18 $3 +$2 +52%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to Score May 18 $3 −$3 -100%
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $3 $0 -1%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 $0 -4%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 $0 -6%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 $0 -3%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 $0 -3%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 $0 -3%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 $0 -2%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 $0 -3%
FC Lorient vs. Le Havre AC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5 May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
FC Schalke 04 vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
New England Revolution vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to Score May 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Lillestrøm SK vs. Sandefjord Fotball: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Hibernian FC vs. Motherwell FC: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 −$3 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. RB Leipzig: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 +$2 +50%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 2.5 May 16 $3 +$1 +41%
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC Augsburg: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
MFK Skalica vs. MFK Ružomberok: Both Teams to Score May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
MFK Skalica vs. MFK Ružomberok: O/U 2.5 May 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Al Ettifaq Saudi Club vs. Al Ittihad Saudi Club: Both Teams to Score May 15 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 93¢ $5 20m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 91¢ $5 20m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $49 37m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $51 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 38m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 83¢ $51 40m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $50 40m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $51 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 41m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 74¢ $50 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 74¢ $50 42m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 68¢ $51 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $51 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $38 45m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $13 46m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $51 46m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $51 52m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 52m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $18 55m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 48¢ $33 55m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 55m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $9 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $22 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $0.00 · 292 history records