Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DC
0xdcfb…8267
other · 27 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$15 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 1 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Virtus.pro 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$1 -45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $23 −$1 -6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$1 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 −$2 -75%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 $0 +8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -39%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -58%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $7 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$4 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 36% −$6
other 30% −$5
crypto 29% −$9
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 23¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 69¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 42¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL Virtus.pro 19¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY Virtus.pro 17¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $1 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 13¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 70¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 70¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 58¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 77¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 54¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 48¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 51¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 53¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 34¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 33¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 29¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 83¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 16¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 84¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 75¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 56¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 66¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 61¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 48¢ $2 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 27¢ $1 14h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 34¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 23% -31.0%
≤30d 26 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 23% -31.0%
≤90d 26 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 23% -31.0%
all 26 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 23% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 23% -31.0%
10% -36.7% 12% -37.6%
15% -42.8% 8% -43.6%
20% -48.5% 4% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 94 history records