Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:00:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

DC 0xdcfb…3ac1 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$53 (+14%) realized +$61 · open −$8

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$48per market

Trades / day14.0pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-1.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+9.4%	-1.0%	60%	60%	+1.3%
≤30d	5	+9.4%	-1.0%	60%	60%	+1.3%
≤90d	5	+9.4%	-1.0%	60%	60%	+1.3%
all	5	+9.4%	-1.0%	60%	60%	+1.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.0%	60%	+1.3%
10%	-10.5%	40%	-8.4%
15%	-19.1%	40%	-17.2%
20%	-27.1%	40%	-25.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 68% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +12% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized+$61

Unrealized−$8

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)5 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$48

Trades / day14.0

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	Under	53¢	52¢	$55	$55	−$1 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	22¢	8¢	$12	$5	−$7 (-61%)
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	Jun 18	$98	+$20	+20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers	Jun 18	$86	−$40	-46%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs.	Jun 18	$5	+$5	+97%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	Jun 17	$68	+$52	+76%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5	BUY Under	53¢	$56	47m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Boston Red Sox	22¢	$12	48m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	SELL Under	100¢	$118	49m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	83¢	$98	1h
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	2¢	$2	1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers	SELL Milwaukee Brewers	93¢	$29	1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	SELL Toronto Blue Jays	69¢	$71	1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers	BUY Milwaukee Brewers	85¢	$27	1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers	SELL Cleveland Guardians	14¢	$17	1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers	BUY Cleveland Guardians	47¢	$59	3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox	BUY Toronto Blue Jays	48¢	$51	3h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs.	BUY No	50¢	$5	3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	3h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds	BUY New York Mets	56¢	$68	11h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.52 · official $61.52 (match) · 16 history records