Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DC 0xdcfe…5489 sports 157 markets active 13h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$57 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate67%104W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day27.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days−$32
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -1.6% -10.9% 93% 4% -6.9%
≤30d 151 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 15% -12.1%
≤90d 156 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 15% -11.9%
all 156 -4.5% -13.6% 67% 15% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 15% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 10% -20.3%
15% -29.4% 8% -28.0%
20% -36.3% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses104 / 52
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage30d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day27.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 62¢ 52¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-17%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 35¢ 48¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $7 −$2 -31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $97 +$8 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $24 $0 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $65 +$14 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $24 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $19 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $44 +$1 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $34 +$1 +3%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $44 +$1 +1%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $34 +$1 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $15 $0 +3%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $17 −$7 -40%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $24 +$1 +3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $10 $0 +3%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $7 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 62¢ $6 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 32¢ $2 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $2 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 36¢ $1 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 36¢ $1 12h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 38¢ $2 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $3 13h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 39¢ $2 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $2 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $0 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 41¢ $2 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $2 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $1 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $2 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $6 37h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $1 37h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 38¢ $1 37h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 41¢ $2 37h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 53¢ $3 3d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $2 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 73¢ $76 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $0 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $2 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $0 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $3 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 989 history records