Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xdd02…444f other 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate39%33W / 52L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% $0
world 35% +$18
politics 25% +$8
sports 3% +$7
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
finance 0% −$10
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 40 -1.5% -10.9% 38% 2% -9.3%
all 85 -3.8% -13.0% 39% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 5% -9.3%
10% -21.3% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.9% 2% -25.9%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses33 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)85 / 86
History coverage470d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $60 +$2 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 22 $317 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $159 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $177 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $165 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $51 −$3 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $176 +$8 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $76 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $158 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $93 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $219 +$2 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $334 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $307 +$7 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 04 $180 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $157 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $264 −$1 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $272 −$5 -2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $338 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $174 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $143 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $33 −$3 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $156 +$9 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $1 $0 -25%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $157 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $584 −$1 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $178 +$7 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $14 +$4 +27%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $14 −$10 -68%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $246 +$6 +3%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $33 −$1 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $2,091 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $24 $0 +1%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 11 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $62 28m
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $60 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $159 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $163 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $159 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $17 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $142 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $14 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $177 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $177 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $14 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $152 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $165 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $87 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $92 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 340 history records