Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd06…f0c1 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$706 (-6%) realized −$715 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%28W / 21L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$29
other 6% −$493
world 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -14.8%
≤30d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -14.8%
≤90d 49 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -14.8%
all 49 +0.1% -9.4% 57% 57% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 57% -14.8%
10% -18.1% 51% -22.9%
15% -26.0% 49% -30.4%
20% -33.3% 33% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$211 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$715
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses28 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$84 +82%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$44 +43%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$87 +86%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$201 +197%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $101 +$52 +51%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $503 −$500 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $201 +$42 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $202 +$101 +50%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$167 +164%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 −$100 -49%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$44 +43%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 +$140 +69%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $101 +$27 +27%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $101 +$44 +43%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$47 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $202 −$200 -99%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $505 −$505 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $506 −$506 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $101 +$55 +55%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $607 +$335 +55%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 +$48 +48%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1,005 +$214 +21%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $504 +$181 +36%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $254 +$246 +97%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $204 +$434 +213%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $508 +$578 +114%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $102 +$136 +133%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $101 +$95 +93%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $101 +$48 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $185 58m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 46¢ $102 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $145 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $101 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $159 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $188 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $303 7h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $51 8h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 8h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL DR Congo 89¢ $153 10h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 58¢ $101 11h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $102 11h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 71¢ $101 11h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $503 11h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) SELL Jordan 94¢ $244 23h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $101 23h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 77¢ $101 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $303 23h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $504 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $202 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $269 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $99 27h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 36¢ $102 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $101 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.17 · official $109.17 (match) · 91 history records