Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:06:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd0b…cf8b other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$524 (-40%) realized −$553 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$34
14 days−$467
30 days−$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$458
sports 23% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -49.9% -54.7% 33% 33% -18.8%
≤30d 14 -50.0% -54.7% 29% 29% -57.9%
≤90d 14 -50.0% -54.7% 29% 29% -57.9%
all 14 -50.0% -54.7% 29% 29% -57.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 29% -57.9%
10% -59.1% 29% -61.9%
15% -63.0% 21% -65.6%
20% -66.6% 14% -69.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$66 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$279
Realized−$553
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)14 / 17
History coverage16d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 74¢ $150 $180 +$30 (+20%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$66 +44%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $97 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $238 −$236 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $28 +$9 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $46 +$31 +67%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $80 46h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 46h
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $51 3d
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $93 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $97 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $238 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $90 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 75¢ $28 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 15d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Nick Kyrgios 59¢ $46 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $278.74 · official $278.74 (match) · 23 history records