Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd0b…ad9e weather 468 markets active 22h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$317 (-11%) realized −$315 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%117W / 349L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 50% −$390
crypto 50% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -18.1% -25.9% 28% 28% -18.4%
≤30d 261 -16.3% -24.3% 28% 28% -26.7%
≤90d 466 -22.1% -29.6% 25% 25% -28.6%
all 466 -22.1% -29.6% 25% 25% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 25% -28.6%
10% -36.3% 25% -35.4%
15% -42.5% 25% -41.7%
20% -48.1% 25% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$315
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses117 / 349
Open positions2
Markets (closed)466 / 468
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Yes 28¢ 20¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 337 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$16 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 +$7 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$4 +145%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 +$5 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$11 +123%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 +$4 +121%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $3 +$4 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $6 +$7 +122%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 44¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 27¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.44 · official $4.44 (match) · 883 history records