Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:15:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd0c…be0f politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$12 (+6%) realized +$9 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$2
politics 31% −$2
crypto 18% +$8
world 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 25% 25% -0.9%
≤30d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 25% 25% -0.9%
≤90d 4 +28.0% +15.8% 25% 25% -0.9%
all 4 +28.0% +15.8% 25% 25% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.8% 25% -0.9%
10% +4.7% 25% -10.4%
15% -5.4% 25% -19.0%
20% -14.7% 25% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage11d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? Yes 72¢ 86¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$11 +156%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $22 −$3 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 45m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 46m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 46m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 47m
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $8 2d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 2d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 72¢ $13 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $23 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $18 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $10 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 10d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 10d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 10d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.01 · official $40.01 (match) · 33 history records