trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +28.0% | +15.8% | 25% | 25% | -0.9% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +28.0% | +15.8% | 25% | 25% | -0.9% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +28.0% | +15.8% | 25% | 25% | -0.9% |
| all | 4 | +28.0% | +15.8% | 25% | 25% | -0.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +15.8% | 25% | -0.9% |
| 10% | +4.7% | 25% | -10.4% |
| 15% | -5.4% | 25% | -19.0% |
| 20% | -14.7% | 25% | -27.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | Yes | 86¢ | 88¢ | $19 | $19 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 72¢ | 86¢ | $12 | $15 | +$2 (+19%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 31¢ | 30¢ | $6 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 16¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Yes | 7¢ | 6¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $8 | −$2 | -26% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 15 | $20 | −$1 | -6% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Jun 11 | $7 | +$11 | +156% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jun 09 | $22 | −$3 | -12% |