Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd0c…fb1a sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-2%) realized −$83 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$465now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$201
other 49% −$204
crypto 2% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 45% -12.2%
≤30d 38 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 45% -12.2%
≤90d 38 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 45% -12.2%
all 38 +2.5% -7.3% 47% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 45% -12.2%
10% -16.1% 45% -20.6%
15% -24.2% 45% -28.3%
20% -31.7% 37% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$67 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$465
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $149 $168 +$19 (+12%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 88¢ $100 $129 +$29 (+29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 36¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$57 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$33 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$45 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$47 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$39 -76%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $67 +$168 +250%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +43%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$97 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$64 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $63 −$62 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $102 +$113 +111%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $206 −$205 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $96 +$50 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$93 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $36 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $101 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 6h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $51 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 22¢ $20 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 20h
Ghana vs. Panama: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $51 25h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 25h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 26h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 13¢ $12 28h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $51 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 28h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 40h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 43h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $67 46h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $101 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.41 · official $464.62 (match) · 70 history records