Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd0d…c83a other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$801 (-22%) realized −$738 · open −$63
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$749
7 days−$647
14 days−$647
30 days−$647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$832
other 43% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.4% -16.3% 32% 32% -36.5%
≤30d 22 -7.4% -16.3% 32% 32% -36.5%
≤90d 22 -7.4% -16.3% 32% 32% -36.5%
all 30 -14.0% -22.2% 33% 33% -35.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 33% -35.7%
10% -29.6% 27% -41.8%
15% -36.4% 23% -47.5%
20% -42.6% 23% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$78 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$738
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)30 / 34
History coverage229d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $50 $9 −$41 (-82%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $152 +$90 +59%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 −$24 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$2 -2%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $152 −$6 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$31 +16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $404 −$400 -99%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $201 −$200 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $221 +$33 +15%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$47 +307%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $27 +$34 +123%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $17 +$15 +88%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$32 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $223 −$223 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $369 −$30 -8%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $100 +$157 +157%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $220 +$56 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $135 +$85 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $103 23h
Portugal to win the second half? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 24h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $241 24h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 24h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $21 40h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $279 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $100 41h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 62¢ $146 41h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 41h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $404 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 42h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $201 45h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 57¢ $56 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 29¢ $30 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 70¢ $199 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $192 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.34 · official $58.34 (match) · 100 history records