Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DD 0xdd0d…a6d2 politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$138 (+5%) realized +$150 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$357per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% +$127
economics 6% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 80% 40% -3.9%
all 5 +6.0% -4.1% 80% 40% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.1% 40% -3.9%
10% -13.3% 0% -13.1%
15% -21.6% 0% -21.5%
20% -29.3% 0% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$4 · ×10.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×42.84 per $1 lost it wins $42.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage122d
Avg bet$357
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 21¢ $154 $141 −$12 (-8%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $768 +$135 +18%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $627 −$4 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $548 +$1 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 08 $173 +$20 +11%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $413 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $60 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 21¢ $84 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $255 14d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 51d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 85¢ $768 67d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $623 69d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $7 75d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $627 78d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $193 81d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 82¢ $72 81d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $3 82d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $170 82d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $542 100d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $548 102d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 104d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 104d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 79¢ $347 114d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 78¢ $413 121d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.78 · official $205.78 (match) · 117 history records