Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd0e…4bb0 other 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$342 (-11%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate87%20W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$79
other 25% −$268
crypto 17% +$2
economics 8% +$1
politics 6% $0
tech 3% +$1
weather 3% $0
finance 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 6 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 16 -5.6% -14.6% 94% 0% -14.2%
all 23 -12.3% -20.7% 87% 0% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.7% 0% -19.7%
10% -28.3% 0% -27.4%
15% -35.2% 0% -34.4%
20% -41.6% 0% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$122 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses20 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage116d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 24? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 22 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 19 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $105 +$4 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 05 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 21 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 04 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 04 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $263 −$263 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $262 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $255 +$6 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $252 +$4 +2%
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? Mar 07 $249 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $108 12d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $100 12d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $100 21d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 100¢ $102 23d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $100 31d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $100 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $110 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $110 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $105 52d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 99¢ $96 82d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $95 85d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $94 93d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY Yes $9 93d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $102 94d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $263 97d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $262 102d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 98¢ $255 105d
US forces enter Iran by March 7? BUY No 98¢ $252 110d
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $249 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.94 · official $109.94 (match) · 47 history records