Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:32:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DD 0xdd0f…ac4d world 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$831 (+4%) realized +$1,575 · open −$744
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate54%54W / 46L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$3,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$204
30 days−$361
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$428
politics 31% −$785
other 7% +$18
finance 5% −$90
tech 4% +$164
crypto 3% +$177
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+20.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -19.4% -27.0% 0% 0% -18.4%
≤30d 42 -3.6% -12.7% 55% 26% -15.1%
≤90d 84 -5.3% -14.3% 50% 27% -6.8%
all 100 +33.4% +20.7% 54% 32% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.7% 32% -6.0%
10% +9.1% 19% -15.0%
15% -1.4% 12% -23.2%
20% -11.1% 9% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +69% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$33 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$3,115
Realized+$1,575
Unrealized−$744
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses54 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)100 / 108
History coverage167d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 79¢ $1,334 $2,118 +$783 (+59%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $1,334 $551 −$783 (-59%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 82¢ 90¢ $137 $149 +$13 (+9%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? No 49¢ 51¢ $100 $105 +$4 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 24¢ 25¢ $97 $101 +$4 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? No 20¢ 24¢ $57 $70 +$13 (+22%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $14 $20 +$6 (+43%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? Jun 24 $34 −$13 -38%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? Jun 24 $103 −$1 -1%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 18 $28 +$43 +151%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 18 $464 $0 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $44 −$32 -73%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 17 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $30 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $77 +$3 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 16 $173 +$13 +7%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? Jun 16 $107 +$10 +9%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $539 −$65 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $40 +$4 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $275 −$108 -39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $147 +$65 +44%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $251 +$127 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $356 −$128 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $74 −$73 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $410 −$36 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $411 −$11 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $531 −$108 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $74 −$33 -44%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +14%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 02 $52 +$9 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $430 −$16 -4%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $2 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $71 +$5 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $43 +$8 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $50 +$6 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $738 −$45 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 +$4 +9%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 27 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 20¢ $24 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY No 20¢ $34 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 82¢ $138 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 78¢ $63 4h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 17h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17h
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? BUY No 49¢ $102 17h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 65¢ $39 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 65¢ $14 37h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 44¢ $45 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? SELL No 6¢ $21 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? SELL No 9¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 9¢ $33 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,115.25 · official $3,115.25 (match) · 781 history records