Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd12…9deb crypto 887 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,428 (-35%) realized −$7,620 · open +$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate77%711W / 214L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$620now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,665
7 days−$4,482
14 days−$4,482
30 days−$4,481
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$2,035
other 11% −$418
sports 1% −$79
world 0% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 -14.0% -22.2% 61% 46% -25.2%
≤30d 242 -13.9% -22.1% 61% 46% -25.2%
≤90d 925 -9.7% -18.3% 77% 36% -26.6%
all 925 -9.7% -18.3% 77% 36% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 36% -26.6%
10% -26.1% 12% -33.6%
15% -33.3% 7% -40.0%
20% -39.8% 2% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$46 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$620
Realized−$7,620
Unrealized+$192
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses711 / 214
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)925 / 887
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 67¢ 100¢ $138 $206 +$68 (+49%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $138 $198 +$60 (+43%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 70¢ 99¢ $132 $188 +$56 (+42%)
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 66¢ 100¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+51%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $9 $13 +$4 (+41%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 49¢ 88¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+80%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+43%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 91¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 61¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -7504%
Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $50 −$100 -200%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 17 $10 −$20 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10? Jun 17 $34 −$69 -205%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 11? Jun 17 $6 −$13 -205%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 8? Jun 17 $58 −$117 -204%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 11? Jun 17 $4 −$9 -205%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 17 $98 −$198 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 11? Jun 17 $14 −$28 -204%
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the Jun 17 $29 −$59 -202%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -25050%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on April 11? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -205%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Jun 17 $26 −$52 -200%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 10? Jun 17 $16 −$33 -205%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-01? Jun 17 $24 −$49 -202%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of Jun 17 $0 −$373 -170838%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 0 FC Bayern München? Jun 17 $15 −$30 -203%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-09? Jun 17 $49 −$99 -202%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 17 $98 −$197 -201%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 11? Jun 17 $8 −$16 -205%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 11? Jun 17 $13 −$27 -205%
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Jun 17 $63 −$128 -203%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $49 −$99 -202%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $48 −$98 -202%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $0 −$16 -33940%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-05? Jun 17 $50 −$99 -200%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-09? Jun 17 $98 −$198 -202%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Jun 17 $49 −$99 -201%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $97 −$197 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on April 11? Jun 17 $4 −$7 -205%
Will Elon Musk post 1360-1399 tweets in March 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$21 -200%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Jun 17 $50 −$100 -200%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less tha Jun 17 $23 −$46 -204%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-07? Jun 17 $50 −$100 -200%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Jun 17 $0 +$1 +3524%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 11? Jun 17 $4 −$8 -205%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-04-05? Jun 17 $25 −$50 -200%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 17 $49 −$99 -202%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Jun 17 $49 −$99 -202%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Jun 17 $98 −$198 -202%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 10? Jun 17 $67 −$136 -204%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $142 +$65 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$33 +33%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$5 +52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $102 +$42 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $139 −$136 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $135 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $141 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $141 11m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $9 11m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $9 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $139 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $142 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $101 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $9 25m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $9 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $123 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $101 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $102 40m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $12 55m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $9 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $134 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $148 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $126 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $130 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $12 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $103 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $113 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $620.18 · official $619.03 (match) · 3500 history records