Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd19…e070 sports 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$83 (+9%) realized +$89 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days+$204
14 days+$177
30 days+$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$33
other 39% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +3.2% -6.7% 42% 42% +21.1%
≤30d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +13.6%
≤90d 37 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +13.6%
all 37 +9.2% -1.2% 43% 43% +13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 43% +13.6%
10% -10.6% 43% +2.7%
15% -19.3% 43% -7.2%
20% -27.2% 30% -16.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$15 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 48
History coverage8d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-33%)
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$9 +46%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $50 +$20 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 +$105 +257%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $20 −$14 -70%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -99%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $51 +$143 +280%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $10 −$9 -88%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$38 +187%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $5 +$18 +360%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 27 $10 +$5 +51%
Panama vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$33 +323%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $30 +$18 +58%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 +$10 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$21 +68%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl Jun 24 $20 +$16 +80%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $31 −$7 -24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 +$32 +312%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $9 +$11 +126%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 0m
Deniz Undav: 1+ assists AND Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Florian BUY 8¢ $20 27m
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 9¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 100¢ $70 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 71¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 45¢ $8 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 44¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 86¢ $195 23h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 4¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 31¢ $10 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Alg BUY 11¢ $20 42h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 94¢ $59 43h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 44h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 44h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 44h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 49¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.62 · official $46.75 · 75 history records