Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd1a…0d22 crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$55 (+22%) realized +$13 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$42
sports 40% +$52
other 3% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 42% 42% -30.7%
≤30d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 42% 42% -30.7%
≤90d 43 +27.2% +15.1% 42% 42% -30.7%
all 43 +27.2% +15.1% 42% 42% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.1% 42% -30.7%
10% ← realistic here +4.1% 40% -37.3%
15% -6.0% 37% -43.4%
20% -15.2% 37% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)43 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 7¢ 13¢ $35 $66 +$32 (+90%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 34¢ 46¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 41¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$13 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +173%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$7 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +173%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1 +$11 +1116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $13 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 10h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 39¢ $5 10h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Team Heretics 3¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.94 · official $120.13 · 84 history records