Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:54:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd1b…ff31 politics 212 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,772 (+42%) realized +$6,760 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate45%93W / 115L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$342
14 days+$264
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% +$6,716
other 20% −$141
weather 5% +$4
world 2% +$9
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +28.8% +16.5% 57% 29% +39.1%
≤30d 88 -18.8% -26.6% 31% 17% -10.9%
≤90d 174 +20.8% +9.3% 40% 29% +26.9%
all 208 +20.8% +9.3% 45% 30% +27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 30% +27.8%
10% -1.1% 27% +15.6%
15% -10.7% 23% +4.4%
20% -19.4% 21% -5.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$28 · ×3.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.03 per $1 lost it wins $3.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$6,760
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses93 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)208 / 212
History coverage131d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026? Yes 38¢ 44¢ $95 $111 +$16 (+17%)
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Up 54¢ 48¢ $59 $53 −$6 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 Jun 22 $8 −$2 -27%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 Jun 22 $147 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $318 +$356 +112%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 Jun 20 $1 +$4 +300%
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $128 +$10 +8%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 Jun 19 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$13 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $16 −$4 -22%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 12, 2026 Jun 13 $33 +$67 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$17 +221%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $11 −$3 -28%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Jun 08 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 +$50 +200%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 08 $673 +$27 +4%
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw Jun 08 $883 +$64 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -96%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $12 −$12 -98%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $90 −$87 -97%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 07 $110 −$109 -99%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $5 +$84 +1748%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $141 +$31 +22%
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $65 −$64 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $28 +$16 +56%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.0% by the end of May? Jun 01 $7 +$6 +74%
Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 37.5% by the end of May? Jun 01 $79 +$6 +8%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Jun 01 $39 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $27 −$27 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on May 15? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on May 12? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on May 10? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C or below on May 12? May 31 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 16? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7? May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12? May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 26? May 31 $10 −$7 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 30? May 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 22? May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 6? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 14? May 31 $25 −$15 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 38¢ $58 1h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 37¢ $39 9h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 6¢ $4 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 43¢ $15 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 62¢ $31 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $2 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $111 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 7¢ $4 18h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY Yes 12¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 34h
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Up 54¢ $60 34h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 26, 2026 BUY No 59¢ $147 34h
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 77¢ $116 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $59 3d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY No 25¢ $1 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $4 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 36¢ $26 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.5 and 39.9 on June 19, 2026 BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.10 · official $208.10 (match) · 1751 history records