Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd1c…e2d3 sports 1340 markets active 0h ago coverage 100d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,285 (+1%) realized +$4,288 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate85%1130W / 206L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$300now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 100d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% +$1,607
sports 30% +$20
other 12% +$154
finance 2% +$23
culture 1% +$4
world 0% +$3
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -2.6% -11.8% 85% 13% -9.4%
≤30d 309 +0.9% -8.7% 89% 20% -9.2%
≤90d 1194 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 20% -9.1%
all 1336 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -17.8%
15% -26.2% 5% -25.8%
20% -33.4% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$300
Realized+$4,288
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1130 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1336 / 1340
History coverage100d ⚠
Avg bet$317
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 77¢ 78¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 64¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $877 +$1 +0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $100 +$7 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $101 −$17 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $110 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $4,103 +$35 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $111 +$7 +6%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? Jun 17 $600 +$1 +0%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,000 +$2 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $510 +$3 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$1 +2%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,201 +$22 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,101 +$23 +1%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4,331 +$4 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,331 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,002 +$20 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $210 −$33 -16%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,002 +$30 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $11 −$6 -55%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $112 +$16 +15%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $101 11m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 58m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 82¢ $82 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $877 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 99¢ $100 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 99¢ $100 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 86¢ $10 5h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $1 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 98¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 93¢ $1 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $100 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $2,001 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 96¢ $16 23h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Panama 95¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 67¢ $10 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 63¢ $1 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,000 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $100 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 27h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $600 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $1,001 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $100 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $100 28h
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference? BUY No 100¢ $400 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.70 · official $299.70 (match) · 3500 history records