Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd1d…4fe9 crypto 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,590 (-21%) realized −$2,843 · open +$253
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%40W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,378now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$406
14 days−$560
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% −$2,100
other 24% +$241
politics 18% −$358
sports 14% −$315
finance 5% −$190
economics 2% +$8
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -42.5% -48.0% 5% 5% -39.9%
≤30d 32 -41.5% -47.1% 6% 6% -33.0%
≤90d 65 -26.5% -33.5% 22% 20% -33.3%
all 141 -23.1% -30.4% 28% 26% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 26% -34.0%
10% -37.1% 24% -40.4%
15% -43.2% 21% -46.1%
20% -48.7% 16% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$48 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$1,378
Realized−$2,843
Unrealized+$253
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses40 / 101
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions9
Markets (closed)141 / 154
History coverage150d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $425 $475 +$50 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 20¢ $186 $252 +$66 (+36%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 70¢ $117 $208 +$92 (+79%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 20¢ $164 $192 +$28 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $99 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $48 $43 −$5 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $29 +$10 (+55%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $28 +$4 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 20 $63 −$10 -16%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $37 −$14 -37%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $93 −$15 -16%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $39 −$12 -30%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $65 −$13 -20%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $59 −$41 -69%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $30 −$11 -38%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $42 −$14 -33%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $173 −$27 -16%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $176 −$17 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $29 +$14 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $70 −$39 -56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 14 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 13 $23 −$3 -12%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $45 −$4 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $10 −$6 -61%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $36 −$13 -37%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -29%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -22%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 01 $99 +$190 +193%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 27 $43 −$15 -36%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 21 $45 +$23 +51%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $40 +$13 +32%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in May? May 18 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $25 −$2 -7%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $20 +$30 +145%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? May 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June? May 17 $73 −$73 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June? May 17 $91 −$91 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 17 $8 +$11 +131%
Will Dooho Choi win by KO or TKO? May 17 $20 +$52 +252%
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? May 11 $110 −$9 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 08 $131 +$46 +35%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 08 $18 −$1 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 04 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 01 $170 −$17 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $23 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 56¢ $53 1h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 37¢ $20 46h
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 36¢ $3 46h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 46h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $50 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $78 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 42¢ $28 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 19¢ $52 3d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 22¢ $8 3d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No $19 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $15 3d
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $18 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 42¢ $19 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 4d
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 20¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,378.08 · official $1,378.09 (match) · 773 history records