Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd1f…ea7a crypto 214 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$885 (-3%) realized −$226 · open −$659
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%108W / 96L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$7,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days+$326
14 days+$278
30 days+$1,397
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$2,602
other 34% +$1,468
crypto 16% −$1,320
politics 13% +$1,233
finance 0% +$9
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 67% +4.7%
≤30d 37 -13.4% -21.7% 46% 41% +10.3%
≤90d 134 -17.9% -25.7% 47% 42% -10.6%
all 204 -14.6% -22.7% 53% 41% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 41% -11.5%
10% -30.1% 33% -20.0%
15% -36.9% 25% -27.7%
20% -43.1% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$98 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$7,309
Realized−$226
Unrealized−$659
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses108 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions9
Markets (closed)204 / 214
History coverage131d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 204 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 64¢ $3,000 $2,692 −$308 (-10%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 75¢ 92¢ $1,000 $1,220 +$220 (+22%)
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 85¢ $1,000 $977 −$23 (-2%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $900 $874 −$26 (-3%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 83¢ 85¢ $800 $824 +$24 (+3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $400 $422 +$22 (+5%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 72¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 72¢ 66¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 31¢ 4¢ $648 $85 −$563 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $201 +$22 +11%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $202 −$1 -1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $142 −$140 -99%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $168 +$176 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$10 +19%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $1,307 +$260 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $89 −$88 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $71 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $37 +$36 +98%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $56 −$18 -33%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $80 −$22 -28%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $77 −$76 -98%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,007 +$281 +28%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $120 −$118 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $145 +$9 +6%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 09 $51 −$48 -94%
Borges vs. Atmane: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 08 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $46 +$15 +32%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $509 +$757 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 07 $46 +$39 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 05 $91 −$90 -99%
Berrettini vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 04 $40 −$8 -20%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $153 −$111 -72%
Mensik vs. Rublev: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 01 $30 +$18 +58%
Svitolina vs. Bencic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 01 $30 +$25 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $507 +$453 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 30 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $93 −$90 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 30 $174 −$31 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 30 $53 −$45 -85%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 30 $163 −$160 -98%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $299 +$746 +250%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? May 28 $103 −$51 -50%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys May 27 $74 −$73 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Alexander Bublik vs Jan-Lennard Struff May 26 $201 −$200 -99%
Gaston vs. Monfils: Match O/U 36.5 May 26 $157 +$119 +76%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $101 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 25 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $600 +$511 +85%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Petr Bar Biryukov May 23 $192 −$190 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $98 −$93 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 23 $104 −$29 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 23 $208 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 22 $104 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $121 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $101 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 39h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 65¢ $201 39h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $142 39h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $202 39h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch SELL Dane Sweeny 93¢ $343 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch BUY Dane Sweeny 45¢ $168 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $62 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 4d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 4d
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA BUY No 87¢ $1,004 4d
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Au BUY 45¢ $46 9d
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $104 9d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $89 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 90¢ $86 13d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $71 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $73 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $37 13d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? SELL No 40¢ $38 13d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 57¢ $56 13d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 56¢ $56 13d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 78¢ $80 13d
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 25¢ $77 14d
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 59¢ $101 14d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 63¢ $51 14d
Will Federico Valverde record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 10¢ $51 14d
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 14d
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $120 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $35 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,308.83 · official $7,308.83 (match) · 418 history records