Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd21…888b world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$17
other 12% $0
finance 7% +$9
politics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 40 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 42 -0.6% -10.1% 31% 0% -9.7%
all 91 -2.0% -11.3% 40% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 3% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 2% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage467d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $98 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $142 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $152 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $253 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $23 −$5 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $221 −$6 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $144 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 +$3 +8%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $145 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $142 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $149 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $102 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $234 −$3 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $320 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $289 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $177 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $176 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $102 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $24 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $3 $0 -7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $590 +$9 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $169 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $14 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $166 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $166 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $123 −$3 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $83 −$2 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $165 −$10 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $169 +$3 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $154 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $63 +$5 +7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $2,091 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 24 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Solana dip to $140 in June? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 260–274 times May 30–June 6? Jun 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $103K and $104K on May 23? May 22 $12 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 16 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $98 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $98 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $141 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $142 10h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $98 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 15h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $124 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $152 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $152 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $118 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 36h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $142 39h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $18 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 25¢ $23 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $110 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $111 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $162 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $159 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $144 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $13 4d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $131 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $81 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $61 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $142 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 322 history records