Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdd22…9ef1
world · 41 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$437,900 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$330,954 · open −$53,751
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$303,401
Realized+$330,954
Unrealized−$53,751
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses16 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions17
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage80d
Avg bet$102,646
Trades / day41.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 17 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days−$2,873
14 days−$4,114
30 days−$3,941
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $85,000 $144,755 +$59,755 (+70%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $102,166 $105,940 +$3,775 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $85,000 $25,245 −$59,755 (-70%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 99¢ $19,628 $22,578 +$2,950 (+15%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2,000 $2,500 +$500 (+25%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 86¢ 99¢ $867 $999 +$131 (+15%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 46¢ 90¢ $381 $742 +$361 (+95%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 10¢ 2¢ $1,111 $183 −$928 (-83%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 34¢ $156 $169 +$13 (+8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $180 $95 −$84 (-47%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 16¢ $139 $68 −$71 (-51%)
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026? Yes 68¢ 28¢ $126 $53 −$73 (-58%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $297 $37 −$260 (-88%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $192 $13 −$179 (-93%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+172%)
Will Waymo launch in London by June 30 2026? Yes 56¢ 5¢ $88 $7 −$80 (-92%)
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Yes 38¢ 16¢ $13 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $49 $1 −$47 (-97%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 0¢ $4,712 $0 −$4,712 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $74,182 +$224 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $133 −$27 -20%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,194 +$420 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29,333 +$1,222 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $4,764 −$4,712 -99%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $100,000 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,024 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $550,690 +$783 +0%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Jun 01 $47 −$47 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? Jun 01 $641 −$641 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 01 $307 −$307 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 01 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $410,000 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $120,879 +$121 +0%
English Premier League: Bruno Fernandes breaks assists record? May 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 24 $66,602 +$64 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $635,555 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $8,154 −$1,777 -22%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? May 20 $1,212 +$1,707 +141%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 14 $567 −$395 -70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $12,531 +$127 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $288,840 +$1,160 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $455,555 +$180,000 +40%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 12 $189,620 +$380 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $578,260 +$1,450 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Apr 07 $970 +$28 +3%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $198,700 +$152,152 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 33% +$6,712
politics 30% +$122,331
other 23% +$148,067
crypto 13% +$777
sports 0% −$423
tech 0% −$260
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1,133 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -21.4% -28.8% 50% 17% -10.8%
≤30d 21 -24.2% -31.4% 43% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -18.6% -26.3% 53% 13% -1.8%
all 30 -18.6% -26.3% 53% 13% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover41.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 13% -1.8%
10% -33.4% 13% -11.2%
15% ← realistic here -39.8% 10% -19.8%
20% -45.7% 7% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303,400.55 · official $303,400.71 (match) · 3500 history records