Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd23…77fd other 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,114 (+2%) realized +$3,394 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate36%83W / 147L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$606per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 255d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$11,743
sports 10% −$2,120
crypto 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-45.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -4.1% -13.2% 56% 22% -7.6%
≤30d 62 +8.3% -2.0% 63% 31% -7.9%
≤90d 199 -33.2% -39.6% 40% 24% -19.2%
all 230 -39.7% -45.4% 36% 22% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.4% 22% -20.4%
10% -50.7% 17% -28.0%
15% -55.4% 13% -35.0%
20% -59.8% 10% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -75% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$141 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,394
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses83 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage255d
Avg bet$606
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 70¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 116 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,013 +$501 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $191 +$9 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,580 −$166 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 −$50 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,042 +$58 +3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +30%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,411 −$111 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,595 +$170 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $529 −$29 -6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $35 +$65 +186%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,849 −$39 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,039 −$39 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,069 +$81 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,051 +$49 +5%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,982 +$118 +3%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $57 −$56 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,404 +$46 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $471 −$21 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$18 +59%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $238 +$162 +68%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,120 +$21 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,748 +$53 +3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $574 +$26 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$71 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $442 +$12 +3%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,838 −$328 -18%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $452 −$152 -34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $250 −$150 -60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,107 +$393 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,941 +$9 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $790 −$40 -5%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2,244 +$6 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,138 +$62 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $637 −$37 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,398 +$602 +43%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $626 −$16 -3%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,636 +$24 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3,680 +$70 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $58 +$42 +74%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 28 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $2,322 +$78 +3%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $856 +$144 +17%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 24 $158 +$96 +61%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $407 +$43 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 30m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $42 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $13 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $34 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 69¢ $9 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 39¢ $199 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 32¢ $163 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $118 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $270 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $435 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $125 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $12 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 38¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $35 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $36 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $64 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $46 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.20 (match) · 2940 history records