Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DD 0xdd23…387e sports 552 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,721 (+12%) realized +$13,967 · open +$754
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%360W / 187L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$1,707est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$1,556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$521
14 days+$1,522
30 days+$1,097
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$9,101
other 13% +$293
world 0% +$617
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +27.1% +15.0% 81% 56% -1.0%
≤30d 125 -19.0% -26.7% 49% 32% -6.5%
≤90d 547 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 40% -2.6%
all 547 +7.9% -2.4% 66% 40% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 40% -2.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 32% -11.9%
15% -20.2% 27% -20.4%
20% -28.1% 22% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$109 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,556
Realized+$13,967
Unrealized+$754
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses360 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$1,707
Open positions5
Markets (closed)547 / 552
History coverage79d ⚠
Avg bet$221
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 547 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Phantom 36¢ 100¢ $341 $946 +$605 (+178%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 35¢ 36¢ $350 $355 +$5 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner TDK 39¢ 100¢ $76 $196 +$119 (+156%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) TDK 37¢ 100¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+170%)
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? Yes 48¢ 47¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $519 +$374 +72%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$10 +97%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 21 $116 +$12 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $119 +$115 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +122%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $500 +$250 +50%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $306 +$33 +11%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $368 −$366 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $427 −$420 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $395 −$390 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $670 +$330 +49%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $457 +$520 +114%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $985 +$5 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $620 +$41 +7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $27 −$7 -27%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $556 +$180 +32%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $565 +$22 +4%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $225 −$221 -98%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 10 $83 −$22 -26%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $399 +$368 +92%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 10 $518 +$59 +11%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro L Jun 10 $453 +$386 +85%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $414 +$133 +32%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $199 +$39 +20%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $346 −$80 -23%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $459 +$151 +33%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $145 −$113 -78%
Will Chiefs win? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bahcesehir Koleji vs. Besiktas Jun 08 $20 +$4 +19%
Unics Kazan vs. CSKA Moscow Jun 08 $387 +$113 +29%
Spread: Bahcesehir Koleji (-4.5) Jun 08 $6 −$6 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $39 +$17 +43%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $291 +$9 +3%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Shanghai Dongfang win CBA? Jun 06 $84 −$30 -36%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $77 +$20 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $1,317 +$7 +0%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $62 −$8 -14%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $3,722 $0 +0%
Will Zhejiang Guangsha Lions win CBA? Jun 05 $783 −$31 -4%
WTT - Women's Singles: Miyuu Kihara vs Hitomi Sato Jun 05 $15 +$1 +8%
WTT - Women's Singles: Cheon-Hui Joo vs Maria Xiao Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
WTT - Men's Singles: Tiago Apolonia vs Hiroto Shinozuka Jun 05 $66 +$1 +1%
WTT - Women's Singles: Camille Lutz vs Kaho Akae Jun 05 $21 +$2 +9%
WTT - Men's Singles: Gyu-Hyeon Park vs Quadri Aruna Jun 05 $24 +$2 +9%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 05 $282 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $357 13m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 36¢ $212 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Close BUY Phantom 36¢ $135 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) BUY TDK 37¢ $15 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 39¢ $37 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 39¢ $41 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $5 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 61¢ $149 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 61¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 62¢ $247 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 62¢ $62 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 62¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY Infinite 50¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 40¢ $37 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 38¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 38¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 37¢ $12 7h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 91¢ $18 9h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 91¢ $34 9h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 91¢ $34 9h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 91¢ $31 9h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 50¢ $119 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $377 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $30 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $95 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $101 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $1 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $4 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 75¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,555.99 · official $1,555.99 (match) · 3500 history records