Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd24…efda world 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$34
politics 17% +$3
other 13% −$6
economics 13% +$4
crypto 4% $0
finance 3% +$3
sports 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 33% 22% -9.5%
≤30d 34 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 52 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 10% -9.0%
all 66 -1.5% -10.8% 39% 9% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 9% -9.1%
10% -19.4% 5% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage352d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $157 −$3 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $128 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $14 +$2 +12%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $129 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $118 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -11%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $128 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $134 −$5 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 −$4 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $136 +$2 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $18 $0 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $270 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $148 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -12%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $194 −$4 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $235 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $135 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $467 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $296 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $153 +$33 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $35 +$11 +33%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $31 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $286 +$3 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $20 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $132 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $102 −$2 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $135 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 -27%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $169 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $4 +$1 +30%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $56 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $264 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $540 +$4 +1%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 29 $540 $0 +0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $718 +$3 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $23 +$1 +3%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 27 $19 −$4 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $36 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 40h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $36 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 43h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $43 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $78 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $13 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $64 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $61 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $90 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $38 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $128 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $38 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $86 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.01 · official $0.00 · 291 history records