Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd25…a624 crypto 355 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,452 (-16%) realized −$26,452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%199W / 151L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$1,645est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$651
14 days−$632
30 days−$20,398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$16,417
sports 47% −$13,060
other 0% +$60
world 0% −$24
politics 0% −$33
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -23.0% -30.3% 46% 31% -24.8%
≤30d 166 -4.6% -13.7% 53% 38% -29.1%
≤90d 350 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 47% -28.3%
all 350 -2.4% -11.7% 57% 47% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 47% -28.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 37% -35.1%
15% -27.9% 28% -41.4%
20% -35.0% 23% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$347 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$26,452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses199 / 151
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,645
Open positions5
Markets (closed)350 / 355
History coverage53d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+96%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $151 +$1 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $61 +$60 +99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $28 −$27 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $8 −$4 -50%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$3 -10%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$5 +58%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +61%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $25 −$18 -71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $9 +$9 +101%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 09 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $744 −$445 -60%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $555 +$155 +28%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $8 +$1 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,019 −$506 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$4 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $109 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $130 +$32 +25%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 08 $158 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $105 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 08 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $592 +$142 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $30 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 79¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $30 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 20¢ $32 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 24¢ $1 1h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 74¢ $120 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $121 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $30 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $30 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 11¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 8¢ $2 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $26 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $5 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $10 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $23 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 9h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 93¢ $0 10h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL San Diego Padres 92¢ $3 10h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $5 10h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 60¢ $2 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 73¢ $3 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.95 · official $10.45 (match) · 1899 history records