Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

DD 0xdd25…bdd8 sports 21 markets active 9h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2,509 (-54%) realized −$2,509 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR48%break-even

Win rate48%10W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$220per market

Trades / day6.7pace

Fees−$16est.

Kalshi-fit62%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +48%

net ROI/market (all)-22.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-14.6%	-22.7%	48%	48%	-59.4%
≤30d	21	-14.6%	-22.7%	48%	48%	-59.4%
≤90d	21	-14.6%	-22.7%	48%	48%	-59.4%
all	21	-14.6%	-22.7%	48%	48%	-59.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-22.7%	48%	-59.4%
10%	-30.1%	48%	-63.3%
15%	-36.8%	48%	-66.9%
20%	-43.0%	38%	-70.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +23% → late -49% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$85 vs −$307 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.25 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$2,509

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)48%

Wins / losses10 / 11

Est. fees paid−$16

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage5d

Avg bet$220

Trades / day6.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$2,477	−$2,442	-99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	Jun 16	$292	−$290	-99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 16	$172	−$170	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$313	+$150	+48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 16	$102	+$136	+134%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Jun 15	$46	−$45	-99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$25	−$25	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 15	$101	−$100	-99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$218	+$179	+82%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$50	+$22	+43%
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	Jun 14	$51	+$44	+86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$51	−$50	-98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$71	+$37	+52%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$172	+$114	+66%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$142	+$81	+57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$30	+$36	+118%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$51	+$55	+108%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$94	−$93	-99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$50	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$6	9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$2,471	11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5)	BUY Iraq	77¢	$292	44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	BUY Iraq	56¢	$172	45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$313	2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$46	3d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	37¢	$25	3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$101	3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	55¢	$101	3d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$72	4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	SELL Germany	100¢	$94	4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$51	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$56	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	100¢	$108	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$51	4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5)	BUY Germany	53¢	$51	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	55¢	$30	4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	65¢	$71	4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	54¢	$81	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$285	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	96¢	$70	4d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	69¢	$50	4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$222	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$142	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$67	4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$30	4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$105	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records