Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DD 0xdd26…d405 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-2%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%6W / 7L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$63
sports 46% +$389
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +21.7% +10.1% 46% 46% +6.2%
≤30d 13 +21.7% +10.1% 46% 46% +6.2%
≤90d 13 +21.7% +10.1% 46% 46% +6.2%
all 13 +21.7% +10.1% 46% 46% +6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.1% 46% +6.2%
10% -0.5% 46% -3.9%
15% -10.1% 31% -13.2%
20% -18.9% 15% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$149 vs −$63 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.02 per $1 lost it wins $2.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses6 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $879 +$268 +30%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 23 $616 +$264 +43%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $12 +$4 +33%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $25 −$13 -52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 +$10 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $33 −$18 -54%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $15 −$14 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $15 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $385 −$371 -96%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $262 +$125 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $273 −$11 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$225 +474%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,148 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $879 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $879 2h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 69¢ $616 3h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $16 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $12 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 26¢ $12 2d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $25 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 50¢ $14 2d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 26¢ $385 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $386 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $262 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 75¢ $262 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $273 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $48 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 25 history records