Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:11:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd28…374a other 1141 markets active 2h ago coverage 503d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 502d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,237 (-6%) realized −$12,197 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate73%767W / 279L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$5,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 503d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$1,870
crypto 22% +$242
politics 18% +$2,009
world 7% −$5,180
sports 5% −$1,853
economics 2% +$2,363
tech 0% −$9
culture 0% −$26
finance 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -45.1% -50.3% 50% 0% -82.3%
≤30d 17 -20.0% -27.7% 59% 24% -26.2%
≤90d 63 +7.6% -2.7% 60% 25% -27.4%
all 1046 -4.1% -13.3% 73% 37% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 37% -11.4%
10% -21.6% 20% -19.9%
15% -29.1% 12% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$116 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

503d coverage
Net worth$5,035
Realized−$12,197
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses767 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions89
Markets (closed)1046 / 1141
History coverage503d ⚠
Avg bet$191
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 89 History 1046 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? No 90¢ 91¢ $1,466 $1,479 +$13 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027? No 75¢ 69¢ $675 $623 −$52 (-8%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $307 $356 +$49 (+16%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No 69¢ 65¢ $323 $306 −$17 (-5%)
Bitcoin quantum-resistant upgrade implemented in 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $206 $211 +$4 (+2%)
Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027? No 88¢ 62¢ $220 $156 −$64 (-29%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $132 $130 −$2 (-1%)
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 74¢ 95¢ $99 $127 +$28 (+28%)
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 87¢ 76¢ $106 $93 −$13 (-13%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026? No 79¢ 94¢ $71 $85 +$14 (+20%)
Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 78¢ $64 $78 +$14 (+23%)
Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027? No 83¢ 92¢ $57 $63 +$7 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? No 85¢ 83¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? No 95¢ 91¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027? No 89¢ 94¢ $45 $48 +$2 (+5%)
Tom Lee charged by December 31? No 91¢ 94¢ $46 $47 +$2 (+4%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $44 $47 +$3 (+6%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $46 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027? No 96¢ 95¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 91¢ 56¢ $63 $39 −$24 (-38%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 75¢ 94¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico? Jun 12 $23 +$2 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $377 −$114 -30%
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Jun 02 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $203 +$56 +27%
Human moon landing in 2026? May 28 $48 $0 +1%
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 28 $35 +$10 +29%
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 28 $73 +$7 +10%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $8 +$2 +32%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $13 +$7 +52%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P May 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 18 $66 −$12 -18%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? Apr 22 $367 −$367 -100%
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? Apr 21 $293 −$3 -1%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $6 $0 +6%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $64 +$6 +10%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? Apr 13 $473 −$473 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $248 −$248 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-06? Apr 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 07 $223 −$223 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Apr 07 $450 −$450 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $223 −$223 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $223 +$250 +112%
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? Apr 04 $23 +$99 +428%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $158 −$1 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 04 $597 −$72 -12%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Apr 04 $103 −$21 -20%
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 04 $24 +$180 +742%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Apr 04 $1,426 +$7 +0%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Apr 04 $346 −$17 -5%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $224 +$21 +9%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $502 −$8 -2%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Apr 04 $903 −$40 -4%
Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? Apr 04 $619 −$4 -1%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 03 $166 +$41 +25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $6 +$1 +10%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +5%
Prince Andrew charged by March 31? Apr 01 $9 +$1 +15%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 01 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Trump sue Trevor Noah by March 31? Apr 01 $10 +$1 +6%
Karoline Leavitt out by March 31? Apr 01 $19 +$1 +4%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $17 +$3 +16%
Tim Walz in jail by March 31? Apr 01 $23 $0 +1%
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31? Apr 01 $29 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? AND Will Portugal vs. DR C BUY 2¢ $16 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $134 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $107 30h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will United States v BUY 1¢ $21 30h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will France vs. Senegal end i BUY 1¢ $21 30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will France vs. Se BUY 1¢ $51 30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will France vs. Se BUY 1¢ $23 47h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Ko BUY 3¢ $3 47h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $119 14d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $119 14d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $311 15d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $312 16d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $259 18d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 78¢ $174 20d
Human moon landing in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 20d
Will Rabby launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 20d
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $80 20d
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 20d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? SELL Yes 78¢ $29 20d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 79¢ $30 20d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 29d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $8 29d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 57¢ $6 29d
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 29d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 29d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 49¢ $290 57d
Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $290 57d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 49¢ $77 57d
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. US Cremonese end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $473 71d
Will OpenSea launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $122 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,034.87 · official $5,072.15 (match) · 3500 history records