Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:01:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd29…d827 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$192
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -54.5%
≤30d 5 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -54.5%
≤90d 5 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -54.5%
all 5 -55.4% -59.6% 20% 20% -54.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.6% 20% -54.5%
10% -63.5% 20% -58.9%
15% -67.0% 20% -62.8%
20% -70.3% 20% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$63 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $34 −$33 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$18 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 92¢ $161 24h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 57¢ $101 25h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $34 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $32 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records