Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd29…7fd2 other 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 241L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$18
14 days−$26
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$39
sports 25% −$22
politics 9% −$7
crypto 6% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$4
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage136d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $209 −$2 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $586 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $322 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $404 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $469 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $337 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $501 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $327 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $62 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $146 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $170 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $933 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $63 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $113 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $147 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $257 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $539 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $309 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $475 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $576 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $184 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $462 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $139 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $406 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 31 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $239 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 8h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 10h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $48 14h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $10 15h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $58 16h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 17h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 21h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 23h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $58 24h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $58 25h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $58 27h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $58 29h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $58 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $58 42h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $58 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $58 44h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $58 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $59 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $59 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.34 · official $57.34 (match) · 1403 history records