Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd2b…5b51 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$19
world 36% +$5
politics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 10 +3.8% -6.1% 30% 20% -8.4%
≤90d 10 +3.8% -6.1% 30% 20% -8.4%
all 43 -2.7% -12.0% 26% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 7% -10.9%
10% -20.4% 5% -19.4%
15% -28.1% 2% -27.2%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage270d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $7 +$1 +18%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $60 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $20 +$6 +31%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $58 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Feb 01 $38 $0 -1%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Feb 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Feb 01 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $101 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Nov 25 $7 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $6 +$2 +45%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $4 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 202 Oct 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or higher on Sep Sep 24 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $54 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $40 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $39 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $57 45h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $63 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $64 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $9 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $18 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $27 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $18 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $3 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $6 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $11 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $19 15d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $37 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $21 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 16d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.34 · official $54.34 (match) · 237 history records