Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DD 0xdd2e…bcfc crypto 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$247 (-9%) realized −$252 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%65W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$255now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$134
7 days−$177
14 days−$177
30 days−$177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$66
other 16% −$211
world 9% −$80
sports 6% +$3
culture 0% −$9
finance 0% −$7
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 144 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 27% -17.7%
≤30d 144 -22.3% -29.7% 35% 27% -17.7%
≤90d 155 -25.2% -32.4% 34% 26% -18.2%
all 219 -25.6% -32.7% 30% 24% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 24% -18.9%
10% -39.1% 21% -26.7%
15% -45.0% 18% -33.8%
20% -50.4% 16% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$255
Realized−$252
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses65 / 154
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions31
Markets (closed)219 / 250
History coverage162d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 82¢ 72¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 16¢ 28¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+77%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+59%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? No 3¢ 15¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+438%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+73%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$24 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $61 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$6 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$10 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$13 +245%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$22 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 22 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $29 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $28 +$3 +9%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $12 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $26 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $58 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $254.55 · official $255.61 (match) · 769 history records