trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -34.4% | -40.7% | 36% | 27% | -52.9% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -34.4% | -40.7% | 36% | 27% | -52.9% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -34.4% | -40.7% | 36% | 27% | -52.9% |
| all | 102 | -15.0% | -23.1% | 44% | 25% | -11.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.1% | 25% | -11.1% |
| 10% | -30.5% | 17% | -19.6% |
| 15% | -37.2% | 13% | -27.4% |
| 20% | -43.3% | 9% | -34.5% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +60% |
| Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +97% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | Jan 08 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 10 | $6 | $0 | -6% |
| Mariners vs. Angels | Jul 25 | $1 | +$1 | +104% |
| Padres vs. Cardinals | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Blue Jays vs. Tigers | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Orioles vs. Guardians | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Astros | Jul 24 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? | Jul 21 | $5 | −$1 | -14% |
| Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -19% |
| Brewers vs. Dodgers | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Astros vs. Mariners | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Twins vs. Rockies | Jul 19 | $1 | +$2 | +167% |
| Tigers vs. Rangers | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -31% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -22% |
| Another Israel strike on Yemen in July? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -24% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Astronomer Divorce Parlay | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Pump.fun buybacks $40M worth of $PUMP before September? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +18% |
| Israel strikes Yemen by Friday? | Jul 19 | $1 | $0 | +50% |
| Padres vs. Nationals | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Reds vs. Mets | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| White Sox vs. Pirates | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Orioles vs. Rays | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Yankees vs. Braves | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Royals vs. Marlins | Jul 19 | $2 | +$12 | +578% |
| Giants vs. Blue Jays | Jul 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Athletics vs. Guardians | Jul 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Earthquake 7.0 or above before August? | Jul 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15? | Jul 16 | $2 | $0 | +12% |
| Pump.fun announces public raise sold out in the first hour? | Jul 12 | $30 | +$1 | +3% |
| Dodgers vs. Giants | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Blue Jays vs. Athletics | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Mets vs. Royals | Jul 12 | $1 | −$1 | -73% |
| Rangers vs. Astros | Jul 12 | $2 | $0 | -5% |
| Braves vs. Cardinals | Jul 12 | $2 | −$1 | -29% |
| Mariners vs. Tigers | Jul 12 | $1 | $0 | -35% |