Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:50:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd30…3098 crypto 1437 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-0%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate85%1249W / 229L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$377
14 days−$491
30 days−$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
sports 0% +$11
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -16.1% -24.1% 73% 61% -18.4%
≤30d 868 -5.4% -14.4% 82% 78% -13.2%
≤90d 1478 -3.1% -12.4% 85% 68% -11.3%
all 1478 -3.1% -12.4% 85% 68% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 68% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 5% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 1% -27.6%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$16 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1249 / 229
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1478 / 1437
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1478 Trades
no open positions (225 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 20 $37 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $49 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $37 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $33 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $12 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records