Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd31…b9b5 crypto 1384 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$494 (+5%) realized +$2,493 · open −$1,999
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%760W / 891L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$2,221
crypto 39% −$239
sports 21% +$1,172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 757 -38.4% -44.3% 38% 36% -28.2%
≤30d 1238 -26.2% -33.2% 46% 39% -6.6%
≤90d 1651 -20.9% -28.4% 46% 38% -7.8%
all 1651 -20.9% -28.4% 46% 38% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 38% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.3% 26% -16.6%
15% -41.5% 16% -24.7%
20% -47.3% 10% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2,493
Unrealized−$1,999
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses760 / 891
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1651 / 1384
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1651 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $2,000 $1 −$1,999 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 2AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$3 -182%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -60%
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$2 -203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -72%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 −$3 -2009%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $901 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $204 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $6 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.20 · official $1.20 (match) · 3500 history records