Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:05:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd33…75e5 other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$36 (-29%) realized −$10 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%4W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$23
other 29% −$6
politics 9% −$6
sports 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-44.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 9 -83.1% -84.7% 11% 11% -72.5%
all 14 -38.3% -44.2% 29% 29% -34.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.2% 29% -34.3%
10% -49.5% 29% -40.6%
15% -54.4% 21% -46.3%
20% -58.9% 21% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses4 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)14 / 48
History coverage145d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 25¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-52%)
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? Yes 36¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 63¢ 99¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 44¢ 34¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 43¢ 32¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-27%)
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-71%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? Yes 51¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Winter Games 2026: Athlete to be stripped of medal? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia enter Borova by March 31? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany join the Board of Peace? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 07 $5 +$3 +52%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? Mar 03 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28? Feb 28 $5 +$11 +223%
Will Ukraine record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1 $0 +33%
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? Jan 22 $1 $0 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 7d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 37d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 37d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 37d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 66¢ $1 37d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 37d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 37d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 37d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 37d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 37d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 92d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 99d
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 105d
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 105d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 105d
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.06 · official $60.11 (match) · 75 history records