Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:45:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd35…c85e crypto 472 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,804 (-10%) realized −$8,778 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%265W / 601L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day66.6pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$2,682
sports 3% +$149
other 1% +$269
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-51.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 446 -87.4% -88.6% 7% 6% -81.8%
≤30d 662 -60.7% -64.4% 23% 21% -38.7%
≤90d 866 -46.3% -51.5% 31% 27% -26.5%
all 866 -46.3% -51.5% 31% 27% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -51.5% 27% -26.5%
10% ← realistic here -56.1% 24% -33.5%
15% -60.3% 19% -39.9%
20% -64.2% 15% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$69 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$8,778
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses265 / 601
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions4
Markets (closed)866 / 472
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$180
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 866 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29? Down 63¢ 46¢ $100 $74 −$26 (-26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 29 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 29 $255 −$255 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $761 −$761 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $62 −$61 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $149 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$16 -454%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$16 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $43 −$88 -202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 29 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY 62¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $111 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $41 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 0¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $144 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $102 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $55 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $31 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $42 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.11 · official $176.96 · 3500 history records