Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DD
0xdd36…e7d5
politics · 30 markets active 2h ago
6.0score
+$338 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$317 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,022
Realized+$317
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage509d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$929
7 days+$929
14 days+$895
30 days+$845
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2,000 $2,022 +$22 (+1%)
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Yes 46¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 12 $1,517 +$929 +61%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $1,620 −$33 -2%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $561 +$1,055 +188%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $359 −$357 -99%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $50 −$49 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $711 −$700 -98%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $344 +$162 +47%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Super Bowl LIX Winner Oct 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker? Oct 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration spee Jan 20 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$6 +25%
Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$7 +27%
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$80 +320%
Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $25 +$112 +448%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inaugurati Jan 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $100 +$178 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 67% +$379
sports 23% +$128
politics 6% +$58
crypto 2% −$202
tech 2% +$24
culture 1% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2,032 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,517 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 63¢ $1,586 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $27 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $48 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $137 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $388 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $19 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $261 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $44 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $669 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $27 9d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $597 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $50 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 94¢ $552 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $295 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $9 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $20 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $10 19d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 93¢ $49 19d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes $3 19d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $50 19d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 13¢ $359 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +61.2% +45.9% 100% 100% +45.9%
≤30d 6 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% +6.4%
≤90d 6 -8.7% -17.4% 33% 33% +6.4%
all 29 -11.6% -20.0% 34% 34% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 34% -5.2%
10% -27.6% 34% -14.3%
15% -34.6% 28% -22.6%
20% -41.0% 24% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,021.74 · official $2,021.74 (match) · 98 history records