Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:02:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd39…5d1d world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$4
other 26% +$1
politics 16% $0
economics 5% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 1% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 67% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 54% 0% -8.8%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 39% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.4% 3% -18.1%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage317d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $36 +$2 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $40 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 11 $4 +$2 +37%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $6 $0 -6%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 11 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Scott Bessent as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 10 $10 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Aug 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Aug 09 $8 $0 -1%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 08 $48 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran in 2025? Aug 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00–1.04ºC in July 2025? Aug 07 $7 −$5 -68%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 06 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $57 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $41 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $0 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $32 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $12 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $16 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $25 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 83¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.14 · official $0.00 (match) · 143 history records