Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DD 0xdd3f…6dad crypto 266 markets active 16h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$208 (-3%) realized −$208 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%158W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$89
7 days−$311
14 days−$311
30 days−$311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$150
other 10% −$268
sports 5% −$140
tech 1% +$4
world 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 43% -23.7%
≤30d 46 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 43% -23.7%
≤90d 46 -14.0% -22.2% 57% 43% -23.7%
all 266 -11.0% -19.5% 59% 41% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 41% -12.6%
10% -27.2% 25% -20.9%
15% -34.2% 17% -28.6%
20% -40.7% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$208
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses158 / 108
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)266 / 266
History coverage108d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 266 Trades
no open positions (30 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$34 -67%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$18 +118%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$21 -69%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$15 -72%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$37 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $50 +$14 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$32 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 −$150 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$63 +103%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$20 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$33 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $63 −$25 -39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $141 +$129 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $65 −$62 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $92 +$39 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 11 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $45 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $26 +$14 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $61 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 19 $42 −$36 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 39h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $15 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $9 44h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 16¢ $6 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $64 45h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 80¢ $101 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $20 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $50 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $184 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $152 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 13¢ $16 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $61 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $124 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 50¢ $10 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $40 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $31 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $84 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $50 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records