Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:20:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DD 0xdd3f…b7c9 sports 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-2%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%29W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$302
7 days−$64
14 days−$219
30 days−$287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$99
other 25% −$198
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.4% +3.5% 44% 44% -12.9%
≤30d 69 +6.4% -3.7% 39% 36% -20.6%
≤90d 73 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 37% -20.7%
all 73 +5.2% -4.8% 40% 37% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 37% -20.7%
10% -13.9% 34% -28.3%
15% -22.2% 29% -35.2%
20% -29.8% 23% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses29 / 44
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 75
History coverage85d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $94 −$92 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $153 −$152 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $343 −$191 -56%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $153 −$150 -98%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $134 −$131 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $104 +$526 +503%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $49 −$48 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $66 −$64 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $18 −$18 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $100 +$50 +50%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $93 +$63 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $76 +$115 +151%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $99 −$97 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $49 +$127 +259%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$19 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$60 +582%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $3 +$1 +25%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$15 +148%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $10 +$3 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Tea Jun 23 $7 +$13 +186%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $9 +$8 +93%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -98%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $7 −$3 -38%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Set 1 Winner: Johnson vs Arango Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$5 -71%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$3 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 +$3 +32%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $24 −$24 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$29 +278%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$19 +47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Keys vs Muchova Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $17 −$2 -10%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $9 +$2 +17%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +102%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $2 +$2 +113%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$4 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $94 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $153 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 28¢ $152 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $343 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 24¢ $153 3h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $134 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $630 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $104 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $49 32h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 15¢ $66 32h
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republ BUY 19¢ $14 3d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $18 3d
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Mo BUY 16¢ $31 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $51 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $156 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $93 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $192 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $99 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 45¢ $41 4d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $36 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $176 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $49 4d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $20 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $44 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $26 4d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C SELL MIR 100¢ $4 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 11¢ $10 4d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $25 4d
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C BUY MIR 79¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records