Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DD 0xdd45…a81d crypto 1138 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,757 (+6%) realized +$1,715 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%587W / 550L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$67
14 days+$404
30 days+$265
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$60
other 27% +$678
tech 22% −$540
crypto 14% +$29
finance 3% +$189
economics 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 46% -6.2%
≤30d 574 +5.5% -4.6% 47% 47% -6.0%
≤90d 1026 +3.9% -6.0% 51% 44% -6.7%
all 1137 +2.4% -7.4% 52% 44% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 44% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 41% -17.4%
15% -24.3% 38% -25.4%
20% -31.7% 35% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized+$1,715
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses587 / 550
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1137 / 1138
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 40¢ 100¢ $28 $70 +$42 (+150%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 408 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $32 +$23 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $15 −$5 -32%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $15 +$25 +158%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$18 +84%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$21 +72%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$7 +83%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$23 +151%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $48 −$21 -44%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $48 +$42 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$11 -21%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $47 −$46 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $55 +$45 +82%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$1 -16%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$19 +617%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$48 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $12 +$13 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$96 +369%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $125 −$28 -22%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $23 +$17 +75%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $17 +$11 +63%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$24 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $32 +$47 +145%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $43 −$42 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Panama be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $108 −$6 -6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 +$18 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 57¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 19¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 31¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 31¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $17 7h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 54¢ $22 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 48¢ $19 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $47 44h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 95¢ $38 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 2d
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 10¢ $4 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 16¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 58¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $90 2d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $15 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Down 39¢ $20 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 75¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $48 2d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 18? SELL Up 88¢ $44 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $40 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $47 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.97 · official $69.97 (match) · 3500 history records