trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 80% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 7 | +1.5% | -8.2% | 71% | 0% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -6.8% | -15.7% | 58% | 0% | -7.8% |
| all | 22 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.6% | 0% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -23.7% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -31.0% | 0% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 24 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 24 | $50 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $90 | +$1 | +1% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $49 | +$1 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 26 | $74 | +$6 | +8% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 25 | $7 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $18 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 25 | $53 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $9 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +7% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 26 | $10 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | May 22 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? | Mar 29 | $8 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump post 160-179 times on Truth March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $4 | −$1 | -34% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 again by March 31? | Mar 24 | $13 | $0 | -4% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Auburn vs. Texas A&M | Mar 03 | $17 | −$4 | -24% |
| Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech | Mar 03 | $17 | $0 | +0% |